What delay really costs infrastructure, and how AI wins it back

Across solar farms, data centers, airports, roads and factories, most lost days now sit in the handoffs between owners, contractors, utilities and suppliers. Leading infrastructure companies are beginning to manage every commitment as an obligation with an owner, a deadline and a daily cost, using AI for infrastructure project delivery over the systems they run.

Cross-sectorSegeta Insights
Cross-sector
The number$$5.9B

of US construction work put in place every calendar day

What is at stake

A day of delay costs between $$100,000 and $$1.3 million on a single project, depending on the sector.

Where days are lost
  1. Owner to utility and authority
  2. Supplier to contractor
  3. Contractor to operator

The ten preceding articles in this series examined five asset classes that share little in engineering terms. A solar farm, a data center, an airport terminal, an urban interchange and a battery plant differ in scale, ownership, regulation and technology. Yet the delays that matter most in each arise in the same place: a commitment changes inside one organization, and the organization that depends on it learns of the change too late to act.

That regularity suggests the problem is structural, and therefore manageable. Bent Flyvbjerg's database of more than 16,000 projects in over 20 fields shows a mean cost overrun of 62 percent,1 and in our reading the spread across asset types reflects how many parties and interfaces each project must coordinate. This capstone draws together where infrastructure loses days, how AI for infrastructure project delivery can work as an operating model, what a day costs in each sector and what executives can do now.

Delivery speed now limits infrastructure more than capital does

The United States put construction in place at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $$2,157.6 billion in July 2026, including $$181.5 billion for power, $$169.8 billion for manufacturing and $$151.5 billion for highways and streets.2 Capital is committed, yet the schedules carrying it remain fragile. Sightline Climate expects 30 to 50 percent of large data centers scheduled to come online in 2026 to be delayed, citing power constraints, equipment shortages and local opposition.3

Factories and power plants show the same strain. A Financial Times investigation reported by the National Association of Manufacturers found that about 40 percent of the largest manufacturing projects funded under the Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act had been delayed or paused, with $$84 billion of investment affected.4 Even in utility-scale solar, the most repeatable asset class, projects representing about 20 percent of planned capacity reported a delay in the third quarter of 2025, most of it in late construction or testing.5

AI for infrastructure project delivery must start at three handoffs

Overruns vary widely by asset class, and the spread says something about interfaces. Oxford Global Projects data show average cost overruns of 1 percent for solar power, 15 percent for roads, 57 percent for buildings and 120 percent for nuclear power, measured from the decision to build.6 In our experience, modular assets with few counterparties perform best, and bespoke facilities with many trades and approvers perform worst. Foundational McKinsey research from 2015 found that 98 percent of megaprojects overran costs by more than 30 percent.7

Average cost overruns range from 1 percent for solar power to 57 percent for buildings and 120 percent for nuclear power.

Exhibit 1Average overruns run from 1 percent for solar to 120 percent for nuclearAverage cost overrun from decision to build, percent, constant prices
Nuclear power120
IT-led change73
Buildings57
Rail35
Roads15
Solar power1

Source: Oxford Global Projects Database (Q2 2023), in Budzier, Getting Big Things Done: The Principles in Practice, 2023

01Owner to utility and authority

Utilities, aviation regulators and state transportation departments control dates that no contractor schedule owns, such as outage windows, operational approvals and utility relocations. These dates arrive through portals, study reports and letters, and they reach Primavera P6 only when someone retypes them. A missed outage window or an unrelocated gas main can move a completion date by weeks.

02Supplier to contractor

Transformers, switchgear, chillers, baggage handling systems and process equipment move through purchase orders in SAP or Oracle, factory tests, vendor emails and freight bookings. Each update sits with a different person in a different company, so a three-week slip at the factory often appears in the schedule only after it has consumed the float.

03Contractor to operator

Commissioning, operational readiness and handover require evidence from dozens of subcontractors, the independent engineer, the operator and the lenders. Punch lists live in spreadsheets, test records in shared drives and acceptance decisions in meeting minutes. The asset can be physically finished while revenue waits on a missing document or a witnessed test.

An orchestration layer turns obligations into the operating model

Leading owners and contractors are beginning to manage delivery as a network of obligations, each with an owner, a deadline and a cost for every day it stays open. An orchestration layer reads the systems of record already in place, including SAP, Oracle, Primavera P6, email, chat and WhatsApp, and keeps one live model of commitments across organizations. Across a portfolio, it runs a four-step loop:

  1. Detect

    the changed commitment when it first appears, such as the switchgear vendor's revised ship date in an email to a buyer.

  2. Explain

    which downstream obligations it touches, from the commissioning agent's test plan to the tenant's ready-for-service date.

  3. Recommend

    recovery options with owners and expected impact, such as resequencing the paving crew or requesting the utility's next outage slot.

  4. Execute and track

    each agreed action to closure, measuring the exposure retired in days and dollars across the portfolio.

The same record can give lenders, offtakers, tenants and airport operators current status, and give suppliers and utilities one channel for dates, test reports and certificates. AI does the reading, linking and drafting, while people remain accountable for every judgment, instruction and commercial decision. Intent is rising, as 61 percent of respondents to a late 2025 survey by the Associated General Contractors of America said their firms use AI or plan to increase AI investment.8

Deployment design matters as much as model choice for regulated and physical businesses. Contract terms, grid data, security plans and supplier pricing belong in the client's own cloud or on premises, and that data should never train anyone else's model. Access should follow existing permissions, so a subcontractor sees its own obligations and a lender sees the conditions it funds.

A day of delay costs between $$100,000 and $$1.3 million on a single project

Cost of delay is the daily financial exposure created when a committed milestone slips, including deferred revenue, financing carry, contractual delay damages and the idle cost of crews and equipment.

At the July 2026 annual rate, US construction puts about $$5.9 billion of work in place every calendar day.

Exhibit 2. Illustrative daily cost of delay by infrastructure sector

SectorBasisEstimate per day
Utility-scale solar, 300 MWacDeferred energy revenue plus construction financing carry (Segeta estimate, Part 1)About $$169,000
Data center hall, 36 MW of IT capacityDeferred lease revenue plus construction financing carry (Segeta estimate, Part 7)About $$287,000
Airport terminal, $$2.0 billionFinancing carry, deferred concession and parking revenue, and standing readiness costs (Segeta estimate, Part 8)About $$330,500
Urban highway interchange, $$150 millionContractor field overhead, agency inspection and road user delay cost (Segeta estimate, Part 9)About $$102,000
Battery cell plant, 20 GWhForgone margin and production credits, financing carry and an idle workforce (Segeta estimate, Part 10)About $$1.27 million
All US construction (aggregate)$$2,157.6 billion seasonally adjusted annual rate for July 2026, divided by 365 2About $$5.9 billion of work in place

Source: Segeta estimate based on earlier articles in this series and US Census Bureau data; assumptions are illustrative.

On the solar estimate, a 30-day slip puts about $$5.1 million at risk and a 60-day slip about $$10.2 million, before delay damages. Liquidated damages, schedule float and delay-in-start-up insurance may offset part of this exposure, yet they are usually capped and rarely cover delays caused by a utility, an authority or a supplier.

What infrastructure executives can do now

  1. 01Price the critical obligations in every portfolio

    Attach a daily cost of delay to the twenty to thirty commitments that move each project's revenue date, and report the total to the executive committee each month.

  2. 02Name owners on both sides of handoffs

    Every utility date, vendor ship date and acceptance test should have an accountable person in the organization that gives it and in the one that depends on it.

  3. 03Build one orchestration layer over existing systems

    Connect SAP or Oracle, Primavera P6, email and site messaging into one live model of obligations that nobody has to update by hand.

  4. 04Set sovereignty and permission rules before deployment

    Keep project, grid and security data in the company's own cloud or on premises, and mirror existing access rights so each party sees only its own obligations.

  5. 05Measure the time from signal to action

    Report how many days pass between the first evidence of a changed commitment and the assignment of a recovery action, by sector and by counterparty.

Infrastructure owners cannot shorten transformer lead times, utility queues or permitting calendars on their own, yet they can control how quickly a changed commitment becomes a decision. Companies that manage every obligation across solar farms, data centers, terminals, roads and plants as a live, priced commitment are likely to recover weeks on each project and earn the confidence of lenders, tenants and public sponsors.

Questions leaders ask

How can AI reduce infrastructure project delays?

AI can read the emails, schedules, purchase orders and site messages where changed commitments first appear, link each change to the milestones and contract terms it affects, and draft recovery options for the accountable owner. The time saved comes from shortening the gap between a signal and a decision, while people remain responsible for every judgment and commercial call.

What is the cost of delay on an infrastructure project?

Cost of delay is the daily financial exposure created when a committed milestone slips, including deferred revenue, financing carry, contractual delay damages and idle crews. On a composite 300 MW solar project, deferred energy revenue and financing carry alone come to an estimated $$169,000 a day, or about $$5.1 million for a 30-day slip.

Why do large construction projects run over budget?

Bent Flyvbjerg's database of more than 16,000 projects shows a mean cost overrun of 62 percent. Overruns are lowest for modular assets such as solar and highest for bespoke facilities with many trades, vendors and approvers, where commitments between organizations change in inboxes long before they reach the project schedule.

Should AI for capital projects be deployed on premises?

For regulated and physical businesses, deployment in the client's own cloud or on premises keeps contract terms, grid data, security plans and supplier pricing under the owner's control. A sound design also ensures client data never trains another party's model and that access follows existing permissions for subcontractors, lenders and partners.

Notes and sources
  1. Daniel Akst, "Why do large projects go over budget?," strategy+business, June 2023, strategy-business.com.
  2. US Census Bureau, "Monthly Construction Spending, July 2026," US Census Bureau, September 2026, census.gov.
  3. Catherine Boudreau, "Up to half of the world's data centers may be delayed this year," Latitude Media, February 2026, latitudemedia.com.
  4. National Association of Manufacturers, "Many IRA, CHIPS manufacturing projects delayed," NAM, August 2024, nam.org.
  5. US Energy Information Administration, "Fewer U.S. solar projects are reporting delays in their expected online date," Today in Energy, November 2025, eia.gov.
  6. Alexander Budzier, "Getting Big Things Done: The Principles in Practice," Oxford Global Projects, data as of Q2 2023, maxpert.de.
  7. Sriram Changali, Azam Mohammad and Mark van Nieuwland, "The construction productivity imperative," McKinsey & Company, July 2015, mckinsey.com.
  8. Associated General Contractors of America, "2026 Construction Hiring and Business Outlook Report," AGC, survey fielded November to December 2025, agc.org.